1. General Points

    We expect that  some economic activity will be delayed several days or even weeks, but this is an intra-quarter story with no impact on Q4 GDP growth.

    The value of property destruction itself is not a negative in GDP. For example, if a factory with a market value of $1 billion is destroyed, GDP does not go down by $1 billion – although insurance company profits could!

    The destruction of that factory does reduce GDP by the value of the goods that otherwise would be produced in that factory (per year), but this is usually much smaller than the property loss itself.

    The rebuilding of the destroyed property is a positive in GDP, probably /spread over a year or two, but starting almost immediately.

    Historical Comparison

    Katrina is the grand-daddy of all US storms.
    • BEA: losses were about $110 billion ($90 bil private, $20 bil govt) in private and public capital; Insured losses of around $80 billion. 
    • CBO: Reduced GDP growth by about half a point in 3rd and 4th qtrs of 2005.
    • Rebuilding was spread over several years.
    • But the initial disruption was centered in the gulf energy industry and there were upwards of ½ million laborers displaced for a considerable period of time. 
    For Sandy, we're seeing initial estimates of $5-10 bil in damages.

    This is far less than Katrina and with no real hit on energy industry or longer-term displacement of workers.

    Bottom Line

    Sandy might reduce GDP growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points, with a lot of that reduction being made up starting as early as within Q4 of 2012 and Q1 of 2013.

    The storm is terrible news for individuals directly affected, but not a big macroeconomic story.

    Our thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the storm's path.


    Contact Macroeconomic Advisers
  2. The outcome of this election will almost certainly affect the conduct of monetary policy.
    • We assume that, if President Obama is re-elected and Ben Bernanke does not seek or is not offered another term, Janet Yellen will be nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve Board (and thus also of the FOMC).
    • If Governor Romney is elected, he will most likely nominate one of his two principal economic advisers: Glenn Hubbard or Greg Mankiw. John Taylor, another adviser, would surely also be on the short list.

    In three of the four cases, the prospective Chairs have written down a simple policy rule that would inform their policy decisions.

    • We have previously distinguished between dovish and hawkish rules.  
    • Dovish rules portray recent and current policy as restrictive, notwithstanding the prevailing near-zero funds rate. Hawkish rules portray policy today as too stimulative.
    • Dovish rules embed a much more aggressive response to departures from full employment than do hawkish rules.
    • Dovish rules prescribe a later first rate hike than do hawkish rules.

    Using these rules as proxies for policy preferences, we can place three of the prospective Chairs along the dove-hawk continuum.

    • Taylor is unquestionably the most hawkish. His rule embeds a modest response to departures from full employment. The FOMC would already have raised rates under his rule.
    • Yellen is the most dovish. Based on her rule, policy should respond aggressively to departures from full employment, and the first rate hike would still be two years away.
    • Mankiw is somewhere in between. While his rule, like Taylor's, allows for only a modest response to departures from full employment, it nevertheless prescribes a later first rate hike that is still one year away.
    • While Glenn Hubbard has not written down a rule, his recent comments reveal that he is not as hawkish as Taylor, not as dovish as Yellen, but likely somewhat more hawkish than Mankiw.
    This is from a commentary that was published on October 10, 2012.

    Contact Macroeconomic Advisers
  3. Contact Macroeconomic Advisers
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