One of the surprises in this morning’s report on second-quarter GDP growth was a huge, 28.8% annualized increase in real imports of goods and services. In a strict accounting sense, this increase subtracted 4 percentage points from GDP growth, the largest subtraction on record.
The reason this was a surprise is related to what we view to be an underappreciated fact: real seasonally adjusted petroleum imports, as reported by Census, has a fairly strong residual seasonal component that we believe BEA adjusts out. The chart above shows the difference between annualized growth of real petroleum imports as reported by BEA and as reported by Census. The differential seasonal pattern is evident, and the differential rate of growth in the second quarter is stunning. What this means is if one is to predict growth of petroleum imports in the NIPA’s using the Census data, one needs to “seasonally adjust” the seasonally adjusted data on real petroleum imports from Census.
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