Unexpected weakness in new home sales in December implies less growth of brokers' commission in the first quarter. However, we left our tracking forecast of GDP growth in the first quarter unchanged...
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One of the most prominent topics this intermeeting period was whether or not to end the MBS purchase program in March, as previously announced, and what the market impact of doing so might be. Committee members continued to talk about the appropriate response of monetary policy to asset bubbles and commented more explicitly on the meaning of “extended period.” They also talked more about the dangers of the failure to move toward a more sustainable path for the deficit and, especially, about the possible risks of politicizing the Fed. The discussion about growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation broke little new ground, although several members were more explicit about their expectations for growth in 2010. There was very widespread agreement that the unemployment rate would remain very elevated for a considerable period but some ambiguity about what members meant by “subdued inflation.”
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Weak existing home sales imply lower broker commissions.
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We believe that the Federal Reserve Board, in consultation with the FOMC, is close to raising the "discount rate," officially known as the primary credit rate, though such an increase is unlikely at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Our expectation of a discount rate move does not at all influence our call...
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YES, and a lot, if the reason for the delay is that there are not 60 votes supporting the Chairman's confirmation for a second term. But NO, not at all, if the only issue is whether the confirmation comes before or after the January 31 expiration of the Chairman's current term.
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Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in November following a sharp, 1.3% increase in October. Monthly GDP rose at an average annual rate of 5½% over the second half of 2009 (through November), following a roughly flat trend over the first half of the year. The increase in monthly GDP in November reflected gains in PCE and other components of domestic final sales partially offset by a decline in net exports. Inventory investment was roughly unchanged. The level of monthly GDP averaged over October and November was 6.0% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest estimate of 5.6% GDP growth in the fourth quarter assumes a 0.4% decline of monthly GDP in December.
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Joel has an amusing discussion with Adam Davidson and Alex Blumberg about the complexities of economic forecasting.
ADAM DAVIDSON: The closest thing to a modern day financial oracle is probably a computer program that lives in St. Louis, Missouri. That's where the offices of Macroeconomic Advisers are located, one of the leading economic forecasters in America. Joel Prakken, the man who created the computer program, showed us on a computer screen how it works.